
(Note – this whole post is based off watching the documentary collapse. If you’ve seen it then you will know all this stuff, if you haven’t then definitely watch it, powerful film that will scare the living daylights out of you).
So, here’s an incredibly short list of a tiny fraction of the things that are made from oil:
Ammonia, Anaesthetics, Antihistamines, Artificial limbs, Artificial Turf, Antiseptics, Aspirin, Auto Parts, Awnings, Balloons, Ballpoint pens, Bandages, Beach Umbrellas, Boats, Cameras, Candles, Car Battery Cases, Carpets, Caulking, Combs, Cortisones, Cosmetics, Crayons, Credit Cards, Curtains, Deodorants, Detergents, Dice, Disposable Diapers, Dolls, Dyes, Eye Glasses, Electrical Wiring Insulation, Faucet Washers, Fishing Rods, Fishing Line, Fishing Lures, Food Preservatives, Food Packaging, Garden Hose, Glue, Hair Colouring, Hair Curlers, Hand Lotion, Hearing Aids, Heart Valves, Ink, Insect Repellant, Insecticides, Linoleum, Lip Stick, Milk Jugs, Nail Polish, Oil Filters, Panty Hose, Perfume, Petroleum Jelly, Rubber Cement, Rubbing Alcohol, Shampoo, Shaving Cream, Shoes, Toothpaste, Trash Bags, Upholstery, Vitamin Capsules, Water Pipes, Yarn, Petrol for cars, Diesel for cars, lorries and ships, Aviation fuel for planes, Credit cards, Plastic bags, Hair brushes, Anti-freeze, Motorcycle Helmets, Carpets, Telephones, Brake fluid, Boats, Glue, Toilet Seats, Shampoo, Household paint, Detergent, Bowls, Fertiliser, Explosives, Car tyres, Artificial turf, Football boots, Lipstick, Weed killer, Parachutes, Umbrellas, Food wrappers, Shower curtains, Waterproof coats, Artifical limbs, Roads, Bubble wrap, Drinks bottles, Toothbrushes, Life jackets, Fishing line, Tennis rackets, Roller blades, Eye glasses, Lunch boxes, Flower pots, Toys, Car seats, Insulation, Nail polish, Hair spray, Medicines, Insect repellent, Golf balls
Now lets do a simple thought experiment – how do we get our food? What’s the process for something simple like a sweetcorn?

To get that sweetcorn into your mouth there’s a fairly specific process.
Under agribusiness a field is ploughed by a machine that runs on oil and is made using oil. Then another machine made from oil running on oil plants corns. Then another machine built using oil running on oil comes over and sprays the crops with pesticides (made from oil). When ready a whole host of made-from-oil-powered-by-oil combine harvesters reap the crop that is then placed into a packaging system built on oil based products and powered by oil based electricity sorts and wraps the corn with oil based plastic.
The wrapped and ready corn is then placed in an oil powered and made from oil truck and taken to a distribution warehouse that is fabricated from oil based components and maintained by oil based oil powered machines. From this distribution centre the corn goes on another oil based oil powered lorry and is taken to a supermarket built from oil based components and you push a trolley with an oil based plastic handle and oil based rubber wheels around the supermarket having arrived in your oil based and oil powered car and…
You get the picture.
The point is that oil is not an asbtract fossil fuel energy source that sooner or later we will need to wean ourselves off to ensure we can still generate power – oil is everything.
Oil literally is the consumerist society in which we live.
Mass production, the astonishingly powerful force that has furnished our developed Western society with such a material abundance of objects is simply a story of oil. Without oil it does not exist.
So it’s beholden on us to ponder, how much oil are we using? And how much is left?
Here’s a graph:

….Pretty impressive that one country consumes roughly the same amount of oil as an entire continent in a day….
So, we’re consuming, as a planet, just over 80 million barrels of oil per day. (stats valid as of 2006, which in itself is worrying as we will come to see).
It’s an obvious but pertinent observation to make that as countries develop their consumption of oil increases in tandem. The EIA is now predicting that the global consumption of oil will increase by 1,600,000 barrels per day.
To switch focus slightly and briefly, here’s another graph, this time world population over time:

And here’s a table – check out the growth rate percentages
| Rank |
Country |
Population (thousands)
2010 |
Population (thousands)
1990 |
Growth (%)
1990-2010 |
|
World |
6 895 889 |
5 306 425 |
30.0% |
| 1 |
China |
1 341 335 |
1 145 195 |
17.1% |
| 2 |
India |
1 224 614 |
873 785 |
40.2% |
| 3 |
United States |
310 384 |
253 339 |
22.5% |
| 4 |
Indonesia |
239 871 |
184 346 |
30.1% |
| 5 |
Brazil |
194 946 |
149 650 |
30.3% |
| 6 |
Pakistan |
173 593 |
111 845 |
55.2% |
| 7 |
Nigeria |
158 423 |
97 552 |
62.4% |
| 8 |
Bangladesh |
148 692 |
105 256 |
41.3% |
| 9 |
Russia |
142 958 |
148 244 |
-3.6% |
| 10 |
Japan |
126 536 |
122 251 |
3.5% |
This post is about peak oil – peak oil is the point at which we reach halfway in terms of the planet’s oil reserves. Once we reach peak oil we are only ever going to have less and less oil that will be harder and harder to get.
Given everything just covered – steady increases in global demand for oil as populations explode coupled with the understanding that our entire industrial and agricultural systems – our way of life in other words – is totally dependent upon oil for it’s continued existence means peak oil is something of paramount importance.
Running out of oil is not going to be good.
This is the Hubbert Peak Oil distribution graph – it was used to correctly predict the advent of peak oil between 1965 and 1970 in the US domestic reserves (I.E. When was it that the US would use up half the oil available in their territory). Although it looks like one this is not a Bell Curve - note the longer rate of decline.

So have we hit peak oil?
Some people say yes, we have.
The International Energy Agency says production of conventional crude oil peaked in 2006 (there are various other types of non pure oil that can, at great production expense, be refined into the right stuff).
The US Joint Forces Command has predicted we will reach peak oil in 2012.
Not only have we probably reached peak oil in terms of proven and predicted reserves, we actually reached peak oil per capita in 1975!
Of course the only time we will know for sure when we hit peak oil will be in retrospect, but it seems clear that it is a “my lifetime” issue.
That bears repeating as it’s such a terrifying fact – there is a reasonably broad consensus that we are right now straddling peak oil. The fundamental material that our transport, agricultural and industrial systems are wholesale reliant upon is now an only diminishing resource. Oil is set to become rarer and rarer, harder and harder to extract, more and more fought over.
From Wikipedia: “Of the largest 21 fields, at least 9 are in decline. In April 2006, a Saudi Aramco spokesman admitted that its mature fields are now declining at a rate of 8% per year (with a national composite decline of about 2%). This information has been used to argue that Ghawar, which is the largest oil field in the world and responsible for approximately half of Saudi Arabia’s oil production over the last 50 years, has peaked. The world’s second largest oil field, the Burgan field in Kuwait, entered decline in November 2005.
Here’s another graph charting all the predictions of world oil production from all the major global authorities:

So what happens when you transpose a graph showing an unprecedented global population explosion over a graph of predicted oil reserves and future production?
You get one pretty spectacular pinch-point.
When a planet obese with people of rapacious appetites runs dry of the fuel that has enabled that obesity, what will happen?
Well, we will lose a lot of weight.
The entire system of, well, just about everything, will grind to a halt.
Although it won’t be a shuddering, jarring, halt – it will be a gradual disintegration.
One day bananas will simply stop appearing in supermarkets. Flights will diminish then stop altogether. The post will stop being delivered. Everything that you see around you will for all intents and purposes evaporate. Society as we know it will cease to exist.
It won’t look, however, like this (I don’t think)

Society will have to transform itself, but I don’t believe that means it has to degenerate into an everyman for himself race to the bottom.
Community will become even more important. Becoming sustainable will no longer be an ideal, it will be a pre-condition of existence.
Maybe we will have to make our own food “a return to the Earth”. Having almost finished East of Eden I’m feeling slightly romanticised toward that idyll of living on the land, becoming attuned to the seasons, to how nature works and what she provides. Although overly romanticising such a thing would be foolish – the rapid diminishing of oil has already led to one unnecessary war, how many more are in store?
There is always the viewpoint that peak oil is ultimately a good thing – it is one less way in which we can destroy our planet.
Certainly a lot of the things that we take for granted will suddenly become rare and precious and will be fought and died for.
I don’t know about you but my naive preconception was that fossil fuels were predominantly a concern of power generation and that as a species we would need to gradually wean ourselves off of them and gradually replace oil with alternative sources of power generation. It had not struck me how incredibly important oil is to what I suppose we should now call the artifice of developed industrial societies.
Oil is in everything, it powers everything, it constitutes everything. Everything that we see around us and take for granted is going to go. The world that we look around and see is an edifice. It feels a bit like the inevitability that the Earth will one day be consumed by the sun, except this will happen in our lifetimes, and certainly in our children’s lifetimes. The greatest re-adjustment/collapse of our society and we will bear witness. Like Caribou populations that grow too rapidly, our society is going to crash and re-adjust.
Should be interesting.
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